展望2018:研究公司對中國和東南亞遊戲產業的16項預測

展望2018:研究公司對中國和東南亞遊戲產業的16項預測

原文作者:Lisa Hanson 譯者:Megan Shieh

中國是全球最主要的手遊和PC在線遊戲市場。預計到2021年,中國遊戲市場的總收入將從2017年的270億美元增長到350億美元。

其次,東南亞地區的遊戲市場也在持續增長中,這一現象對當地開發商和發行商而言都是一件大好事兒。跨國公司和各國政府在該區域的投資將進一步推動這一增長。然而這個大市場中的各個國家存在文化差異,而各地區玩家的遊戲和消費習慣也不盡相同,這就意味着單一的方案沒有辦法在各國間暢通無阻。

本次報告涵蓋了包括中國、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、泰國、越南和臺灣(中國臺北)在內的8個主要亞洲市場。

預測一:中國市場的手遊收入有望超越PC遊戲收入

近幾年來,中國的遊戲市場不斷變化,而手遊產業一直是該市場中增長最快的部分,我們預計在2018年,中國的手遊市場份額將會超越PC遊戲。根據本公司去年發佈的“中國電子遊戲市場分析報告”顯示,直至2021年,手遊業務將佔中國遊戲總收入的58%。

此外,中國地區的玩家總數將在2018年超過6.5億人,其中90%屬手遊玩家,40%同玩手遊和PC遊戲。

預測二:帶有競技元素的手遊和PC遊戲將進一步推動電競產業的發展

電子競技在2018年仍將是個熱門產業,這要歸功於《英雄聯盟》和《王者榮耀》等多款MOBA遊戲接連不斷的成功。我們認爲PC電競的未來增長可能來自《守望先鋒》和《絕地求生:大逃殺》的電競聯賽,而去年掀起的吃雞熱潮也會在今年持續帶動手遊電競的發展。

預測三:騰訊公司將繼續保持市場領先地位

騰訊公司目前的遊戲收入佔中國PC和手遊市場50%以上的份額。由於加大了對內部開發和IP授權的關注和投資,再加上其(通過自營社交APP)強有力的營銷和分銷策略,該公司的遊戲業務取得了很好的成績。

我們預計騰訊公司將在2018年繼續坐擁“中國遊戲市場領跑者”的位置,不過爲了做到這點,它將不得不繼續與網易公司抗衡,並想辦法避免被像阿里巴巴這樣的新晉對手搶佔市場份額。

預測四:中國監管部門會進一步加強監管力度

衆所周知,相關的規章制度一直都是中國遊戲市場的重要組成部分之一,2017年也不例外。不久前,中國文化部加強了針對網絡遊戲的防沉迷規定,致使騰訊公司在《王者榮耀》中加入了迄今爲止最爲嚴格的防沉迷系統,以達到防止未成年人過度遊戲的目的。

中國監管部門已經在2018年發佈了多項公告,承諾要大力整治本國遊戲市場並確保所有在線遊戲公司遵守相關法規。

預測五:從PC移植到移動設備上的遊戲將繼續取得成功

“將PC遊戲移植到移動設備上”是2017年的主要趨勢之一。2016年間,iOS手遊營收榜上的前10中有6款改編自PC遊戲,而在2017年,這個數字從6上升到了7。因此我們預計,今年會有更多同類遊戲獲得成功。

plants vs zombies(from gamedev)

plants vs zombies(from gamedev)

預測六:“吃雞”品類會晉升成爲主流之一

《絕地求生:大逃殺》無疑是2017的年度熱門話題,這款遊戲的成功帶動了“吃雞類遊戲”市場。《絕地求生》的全球銷量突破了3000萬份,其中約有1000萬份出售給了中國用戶,而中國玩家對《絕地求生》的瘋狂熱愛也致使該國的應用商店中充斥着各式各樣的“吃雞遊戲”。

騰訊公司搶佔了《絕地求生》在中國的獨家代理運營權,並宣佈會有兩款同類手遊與PC版同時發佈。此前騰訊已經推出了一款自開發的“吃雞手遊”,不過網易搶先一步在全球範圍內發行了《荒野行動》。我們預計,2018年將會有更多的“吃雞遊戲”在中國上市,而圍繞“吃雞手遊”的一場“市場份額大戰”也會隨之展開。

預測七:中國遊戲在海外市場的表現會有所提升

由於遊戲類型、故事、UI和語言等因素,中國製造的遊戲在國內表現一般比海外更好。但是,包括遊族(Youzu)和智明星通(ELEX)在內的一些中國公司早前已經將目光瞄準海外市場,致使多款中國遊戲在東南亞、日本、韓國、歐洲和美國榮登排行榜榜首。

越來越多的中國公司選擇與海外企業合作,意圖在中國境外大展宏圖,因此我們推測2018年將會有越來越多的中國遊戲在海外市場取得成功。

預測八:VR開發者將繼續嘗試,AR更被看好

近幾年來,VR技術一直是個熱門話題,但是VR遊戲產業在硬件和軟件方面都仍然有些碎片化。我們預計今年會有新的VR一體頭顯和更高規格、更低價格的VR硬件上市。

隨着2016年《Pokemon Go》的推出,AR技術闖入了大衆的視野。儘管該作並未在中國正式推出,但也有許多中國公司將這一元素加入到了自己開發的遊戲當中。

隨着谷歌ARCore和蘋果ARKit的發佈,這一趨勢將持續到2018年。像網易這樣的中國大公司已經開始着手開發AR相關的遊戲和硬件了,我們將在今年看到VR和AR領域的進一步發展。

預測九:在中國,正在增長的付費遊戲市場可能面臨風險

付費遊戲在中國一直是個小衆市場,但得益於Steam和騰訊WeGame等分銷平臺,付費遊戲在2016和2017年間呈持續增長狀態。上述兩個分銷平臺都支持中文語言、分區定價和本地支付功能,《守望先鋒》和《絕地求生:大逃殺》等超級熱門遊戲在中國上市,帶動了付費遊戲領域的強勁增長,而Steam在中國的用戶基數也比去年增長了一倍多。

2018年,我們將在中國市場上看到更多款付費遊戲,尤其是獨立遊戲。但同時我們也爲類Steam的平臺感到擔憂,因爲加強監管也意味着相關政府部門可能會隨時停止這類平臺在中國的營運。

預測十:泛娛樂IP的重要性會持續上升

(遊戲邦注:泛娛樂,指的是基於互聯網與移動互聯網的多領域共生,打造明星IP的粉絲經濟,其核心是IP,可以是一個故事、一個角色或者其他任何大量用戶喜愛的事物。這一概念最早由騰訊集團副總裁程武於2011年提出。)

在過去幾年中,“泛娛樂”一直是個不斷增長的趨勢。現在我們時常看到電子遊戲與電視節目、電影、書籍、漫畫等其他媒介捆綁到一起,網易於2016年推出的《陰陽師》就是一個很好的例子,由此我們推斷,這一趨勢會持續到2018年。

預測十一:H5小遊戲將爲移動遊戲領域引入更多休閒玩家

HTML5遊戲的受歡迎程度日益增長,與此同時,它們也不斷將喜歡在電腦上玩網頁遊戲的休閒玩家吸引到移動遊戲領域。在中國,騰訊是這一趨勢的領頭羊,該公司的“微信小遊戲”項目已經看到了成功的跡象。(遊戲邦注:HTML5小遊戲無需下載,用戶可以直接點開來玩。)

預測十二:電競行業會出現一波招聘熱潮

隨着中國遊戲產業的持續增長,對人才和專業人員的需求也在不斷提升。我們認爲中國遊戲產業對電競玩家、VR開發人員、調研和研發人員的需求將會高漲。

騰訊公司近期發佈的一份報告指出,目前中國有5萬人在從事電競領域的工作,但該行業還可以再容納21萬從業人員,此外我們預計,電競產業對非傳統遊戲角色(比如直播主持人和電競管理人員)的需求也會上升。

預測十三:在線和手機支付交易將會激增

隨着東南亞國家科技的飛速發展,2018年,金融科技也將在該地區實現騰飛。我們將會看到越來越多的亞洲玩家通過在線/手機支付來購買遊戲和遊戲內物品。

預測十四:東南亞市場將會成爲主要投資目標之一

考慮到Sea, Ltd.和新加坡公司Razer(雷蛇)在2017年的高調上市,2018年將會有大量風險資本和投資資金涌入東南亞市場,因爲有許多國際企業都在尋求東南亞地區的下一個遊戲和科技產業巨星。

預測十五:電競/遊戲周邊產品銷量會激增

遊戲電腦和周邊硬件的銷量將會持續高速增長,電競賽事的贊助資金將達到前所未有的高度,由此可見,2018年在東南亞地區會涌現出更多電競賽事、電競場館和網咖。

此外,今年的獎金額度也將創下東南亞新紀錄。東南亞地區的遊戲市場正如火如荼,而那些處於遊戲邊緣的公司也將從中受益,這一切都有助於推動整個遊戲市場的發展。

預測十六:得益於新主機的發佈,亞洲地區的主機銷量將出現增長

在很長的一段時間裏,遊戲主機在東南亞地區的普及率一直都不是很高。然而,索尼在2013年推出的Play Station 4推動了馬來西亞、韓國等主機市場的增長。

任天堂Switch的便攜性和社交性使其在東南亞的玩家羣體中頗受歡迎,隨着這款主機在東南亞上市,該區域的主機市場將有望實現強勁增長。

本文由遊戲邦編譯,轉載請註明來源,或諮詢微信zhengjintiao

In celebration of 16 years of delivering market intelligence on the Chinese and Greater Southeast Asian digital games industry, we’ve put together 16 predictions about the 2018 digital games industry in the eight markets we cover: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan (Chinese Taipei).

China is the single most important market in the world for PC online and mobile games. We expect China’s games market to grow from $27 billion in 2017 to $35 billion in domestic revenue by 2021. Niko Partners has tracked this market since 2001, with our first report on China published in 2003. We predicted that the market had huge promise – our first prediction 16 years ago has certainly remained true each year.

Greater Southeast Asia’s games market is booming, representing a lucrative opportunity for developers and publishers. Investment in the region by multinational companies and country governments will continue to boost this growth. The region represents a giant opportunity however each country’s different culture, gamer preferences, and spending behavior means there is no one-size-fits-all approach to the region.

Our predictions for 2018:

1. China’s mobile games revenue will exceed PC games revenue

China’s games market is constantly changing. Mobile games, which has been the fastest growing segment in China for some time, is now projected to overtake PC online games revenue in 2018. Further, by 2021 the segment will account for 58 percent of total games revenue according to our 2017 China Digital Games Market Report. We expect the total number of gamers to exceed 650 million in China with 90 percent playing on mobile devices and 40 percent playing on both mobile and PC.

2. Esports to get a boost from competitive PC and Mobile titles

Esports will continue to be a hot industry in 2018 thanks to the ongoing success of popular competitive MOBA titles such as League of Legends on PC and Honor of Kings (which Tencent brought to the West as Arena of Valor) on mobile. We expect growth in PC esports to come from the newly launched Overwatch League as well as esports tournaments for battle royale games such as Playerunknown’s Battlegrounds. We also expect battle royale games to drive esports growth on mobile. NetEase already held an esports tournament for its mobile battle royal game in 2017 with prize money of RMB 500,000.

3. Tencent to remain the market leader despite heavy competition

Tencent is currently the market leader in China with over 50 percent market share of PC and mobile games revenue. The company has done well thanks to its increased focus and investment in internally developed and licensed IP that it has paired with a robust marketing and distribution strategy via its popular social networking apps. Tencent will continue to be the market leader in 2018 but will have to fend off companies like NetEase as well as new entrants such as Alibaba, who are looking to take a slice of the pie.

4. Regulations will continue to dictate the market

Regulations have been a huge part of the China games market since its inception, and 2017 was no different. China’s Ministry of Culture enhanced anti-addiction regulations and this led to Tencent self-regulating its hit mobile game, Honor of Kings, by restricting the amount of time that minors could play. 2018 has already seen announcements from various regulatory bodies promising to tighten regulations and ensure all online game companies comply with the rules.

5. PC to mobile game adaptations will continue to succeed

A major trend we noted in 2017 was the success of PC to mobile game adaptations. This is when a PC game is relaunched as a mobile game. In 2016, we noted that there were six games in the top 10 iOS grossing chart that were classified as PC to mobile game adaptations and in 2017 this number increased to seven. We expect these types of games to do even better in 2018 driven by the continued success of legacy titles and the launch of new PC to Mobile game adaptations.

6. Battle royale secures its place as the new hit genre

PlayerUnknown’s Battleground (PUBG) was the hot topic of 2017. The game popularized the battle royal genre and sold 30 million copies worldwide, including 10 million from China alone. Battle royal games usually drop 100 players into a map with the aim to be eliminate all other players to be the last one standing. The game has inspired a number of Chinese companies, including the likes of Tencent and NetEase, to jump on the trend. Tencent has acquired the rights to launch PUBG in China and will launch two mobile games alongside the PC game. Tencent has also published its own internally developed battle royal game on mobile. NetEase however was able to beat Tencent to the market with its global release of Rules of Survival, a mobile battle royal game. We expect to see more battle royal games launch in 2018 and no doubt they will engage in a battle royal of their own to see which game comes out on top.

7. Chinese games will perform better overseas

Chinese developed games have traditionally done better at home due to the genre, story, UI and language. A number of Chinese companies, including Youzu (Legacy of Discord) and ELEX (Clash of Kings), have started to develop games with a global audience in mind and this has led to multiple Chinese games reaching the top of the charts in Southeast Asia, Japan, Korea, Europe and the US. We expect 2018 to be a strong year for game exports as Chinese companies work with International partners to grow outside China.

8. VR developers experiment, AR gains traction

Virtual reality has been a hot topic for some time, but outside of low-priced mobile headsets, the market has not evolved to truly adopt VR as a mainstream gaming platform. The VR games industry is still relatively fragmented across hardware and software. 2018 will see the release of new standalone VR hardware alongside higher end VR hardware at a lower price. Augmented reality became a popular topic with the launch of Pokémon Go in 2016. While Pokemon Go was not officially launched in China, a number of Chinese companies did embrace elements from the game in their own titles. With the release of Google’s ARCore and Apple’s ARKit, we expect this trend to continue into 2018. Companies like NetEase have already committed to AR games and hardware. We expect to see more unified ecosystems across VR and AR this year.

9. Buy-to-play games market may face risks despite growth

Buy-to-play refers to video games that require the user to pay upfront, as opposed to free-to-play games that require no payment to start playing. We previously called “buy-to-play” games “standalone” games. The buy-to-play games market, has always remained niche in China but 2016 and 2017 have been strong years of growth thanks to distribution platforms such as Steam and Tencent WeGame. Both platforms support local payment, regional pricing and Chinese language support. This, alongside the launch of huge titles such as Overwatch and PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds has led to strong growth in the buy-to-play category and Steam has seen its user base in China more than double in the past year. We expect to see more games, especially indie titles, going the buy-to-play route in China but we do express caution for platforms such as Steam which could be disrupted in the future if regulations were to force it to shut down.
10. Pan-entertainment IP continues to grow in importance

Pan-entertainment has been a growing trend over the past few years and we expect this trend to continue through into 2018. Games are now having tie-ins with TV shows, movies, books, comics and more. NetEase for example has been keen to expand its hit Onmyouji IP that launched as a mobile game in 2016. Alongside the original game, there is now a MOBA spinoff, a comic book collection and a potential movie in the works. At the same time, books, movies and online dramas are inspiring game spin offs themselves. Tencent’s China Literature division, which was spun off in an IPO at the end of last year, plans to bring popular literature to other forms of entertainment such as games.

11. HTML5 minigames bring in more casual gamers

HTML5 games are set to increase in popularity this year as they attract a large casual gamer audience that traditionally used to play web games on their PCs. Tencent is one of the companies at the forefront of this growth and its WeChat minigames program is already seeing signs of success. Minigames are HTML5 based games that do not require a download to play — players can select any game and start playing instantly.

12. A boom in esports industry hiring

As the games industry continues to grow in China, so does the demand for talent and industry professionals. We expect demand to be especially strong for esports players, VR developers, and research and development staff. A recent report from Tencent noted that there were 50,000 people working in esports but the potential of the industry could support another 210,000. We expect to see an uptick in demand for jobs in non-traditional game roles such as live streaming anchors and esports management staff.

13.Online and mobile payments are going to surge

As Southeast Asians continue to adopt technology at a blistering pace, we will see 2018 become the year that financial tech takes off in the region. We will see more technologies and companies that allow players to pay for games and in-game items enter the market more than ever before as banks and startups around the region try to capitalize off the growing popularity and size of the gaming market in Southeast Asia.

14. The investment spotlight will shine on Southeast Asia in 2018

Given the high-profile IPOs of both Sea, Ltd. and Razer of Singapore in 2017, 2018 will see an influx of venture capital and investment money into Southeast Asia as companies seek to find the next Southeast Asian unicorn in the gaming and tech industry.

15. The esports and gaming support ecosystem will continue to beat the market

The ecosystem that supports the explosion of online gaming will continue to outperform the market in general. Growth in the sales of gaming PCs and gaming peripherals will continue to shine in a weak PC market, money will flow into event and team sponsorship at a rate higher than ever before, new events will be hosted, new arenas will continue to open, I-cafes will flourish, and 2018 will see prize money available set new records for Southeast Asia. The gaming market in Southeast Asia is on fire and those companies peripheral to the market, but that help make it tick, will benefit.

16. Consoles will grow in Asia thanks to new models

The console market in Southeast Asia has remained niche for a while. However, the launch of Sony’s PlayStation 4 in 2013 has driven growth in markets such as Malaysia and South Korea. Traditional Chinese localisation, local distribution and regional pricing has been key to console adoption in the region. Nintendo has launched its new console in Asia and is committed to following a similar strategy to Sony. The portability and social nature of the Nintendo Switch console lends itself well to gamers in Southeast Asia and we believe the console market will experience a strong year of growth as a result of the launch. (Source: nikopartners.com